We Pick A Veep
You have probably been obsessing, as I have, about who is
going to be the next Vice President of the United States.
If you are convinced it is Martin O’Malley, as much as it
pains me to say this, and as important you are to me as a reader, I have to
tell you this piece will not be about Democrats. That is not to say I am expecting a GOP sweep
in 2016, but rather the GOP field is so much more “interesting” that it draws
me like the Sirens did to Jason and Odysseus.
The enormity of this task should not be underestimated—with
this week’s entry of Ohio’s Governor John Kasich there are currently sixteen
announced candidates for the GOP nomination and there are others who may be
“praying on it.” Several are actually
competent and sane.
So, what goes into picking the person for the job that John
Nance Garner (FDR’s for his first two terms) held in lower esteem than a bucket
of warm spit?
The most obvious is balancing the ticket, both intraparty
and to the public at large—contrasts in age, ideology, geography, and possibly,
gender or ethnicity. Obama and George W.
Bush picked Biden and Cheney for their experience and gravitas, while Romney
went for Paul for his youth and vitality.
Reagan picked George H.W. Bush, his most formidable primary opponent, to
send a signal to moderates that he wasn’t a crazy war-mongering ideologue. Kennedy picked LBJ, even though the men
didn’t like each other, because the South was leery of a Massachusetts liberal,
and a Catholic one at that.
Sometimes, candidates try to reinforce the brand—Clinton’s
choice of Al Gore was seen as a clear statement of a generational change away
from twelve years of senior citizens as Presidents. Nixon had pivoted to a Southern Strategy (and
the mainstream media can’t-be-fair trope) in 1968—his selection of Spiro Agnew
doubled down on both. McCain aimed for
an age contrast, and went “maverick” in picking Sarah Palin (her last few years
as self-absorbed reality queen dim memories of just how effective she was for
most of 2008.)
How about our Gaggle of GOP-ers? Not unlike an all-you-can eat buffet? The easiest way to start is with the
obvious.
Donald Trump is going to be the next…Donald Trump. He’s not going to be Vice President. He would
probably suffer ego breakdown if forced to lower himself that way.
Ted Cruz is not going to be a Veep. He fails the first few tests,
regardless. He’s not a
ticket-balancer—Texas is solidly Red, as is the rest of the South. He’s not really a generational change
agent—his demeanor lacks the optimism of youth and is energetic only in
negativity and disruption. He’s not a
logical pick for a more moderate Presidential candidate because he might
adversely impact the ticket’s potential crossover appeal. And Teddy doesn’t work and play well with
others. This past week he called Mitch
McConnell a liar. Cruz has a better
chance of wresting the Presidential nomination through some quirk of the
primary system then having any of the other candidates tolerate him
sufficiently to pick him.
Mike Huckabee is not going to get it, although that’s what I
think he’s really aiming for. Huck has
veered too populist on core Republican issues such as cutting spending for the
poor and elderly. And he’s turned very
edgy of late—his desire to appeal to the base is eroding his attractiveness to
convincible moderate conservatives who took his social positions as an almost a
pastoral function—as a minister, he would be expected to do so, but in a kindly
manner. Huck has tossed that identity
over the side.
Chris Christie is not going to make it. First of all, he’s following the career arc
of Rudy Giuliani—his gigantic ambition has led him to sacrifice his state to
get conservative street cred, so he’s unpopular at home. It’s not at all clear he would turn Blue New
Jersey even the hint of Purple. Second,
while Christie does have a sort of plain-speaking-kick-the-blank-appeal that’s
worth considering, his appearance at the 2012 GOP Convention was not a winning
one—one would have thought he was the nominee. Politicians have very strong
egos, but I don’t see any of them happy sharing with a guy who craves the top job
as much as Christie does.
Bobby Jindal isn’t even worth discussing. He’s at war with his own legislature, the
credit rating of the state has crumbled, and he adds nothing to the ticket—both
McCain and Romney carried the state by nearly 20 points. He’s below the “Fox” threshold for getting
into the debates. Rick Santorum is also
barely registering. He claims to have
blue-collar appeal, he says he will put Pennsylvania in play, but it’s illusory
at best—he was crushed in 2006 when he ran for reelection to Senate. Santorum might have a long-shot chance of
being a “moderate” Republican nominee’s choice as a sop to the social
conservatives, so I wouldn’t rule him out entirely, but there’s not enough
light in his sun.
George Pataki is barely a blip. I can’t see what he adds, except a calm temperament
meant to balance a very conservative nominee.
New York is not going Red, and if it does, it won’t be because of George
Pataki. Lindsay Graham is like Pataki—he can’t break 1% and he’s
charisma-challenged. He could
conceivably give some foreign policy credentials to a Governor, and so
shouldn’t be ruled out entirely, but the base doesn’t like Lindsay, and South Carolina
wouldn’t exactly be a “get” for the GOP.
Rick Perry intrigues me.
He is the one guy who took Donald Trump on, and he did it
forcefully. I don't think his “oops”
moment is relevant—if anything it might turn into a plus if others pile on. He is just on the fringes of the Fox threshold
and maybe won’t make it to the debate, has no chance of becoming the
Presidential nominee, but I wouldn’t write him off completely as a Veep
choice. His Texan without the Cruz, and
his language on certain hot-button topics, immigration and social issues, is
less censorious than many of the nominees, and might allow him to pivot with
credibility into the general election—on the border, he actually knows what
he’s talking about. He could be useful
to a nominee from another region. He’s a
long shot at best, but it’s not impossible.
I’m pairing Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina because neither
have any governmental experience. Carson
was an esteemed pediatric surgeon before retiring to become a conservative
luminary. He’s at roughly 6% and will
make the Fox Debates. Fiorina (at 1.3 %,
and “out”) ran HP (some say into the ground) and had an unsuccessful candidacy
for Barbara Boxer’s California Senate seat in 2010. Neither has any chance whatsoever of getting
the Presidential nomination, but they are “diversity” candidates (although the
GOP is adamant about not playing “identity politics”) and Fiorina is especially
skilled at needling Hillary Clinton, and would be an excellent surrogate. I expect both to remain on the “short list”
for a very long time, even if the ultimate nominee has no intention of picking
them.
Rand Paul isn’t going to be the guy. His appeal to the young is diminishing with
each double down on conservative social issues.
He has some ideas that are not welcome to the business interests than
help fund the GOP, and he’s way too isolationist on foreign policy. Rand is a true third party candidate—if he
can’t win the nomination on his own, he’s not going to be picked by anyone who
fears having to reconcile his positions.
They will be nice to Rand in the debates, hoping to attract his
followers. But he’s not going to get
invited to the dinner-dance.
Let’s move to the top tier, and then the dark horse. Bush, Walker, and Rubio, and newest entrant
John Kasich. It gets more interesting.
I am ruling out Jeb Bush (for Veep), although I might be in
the minority. I just don’t see it. Bush
will be nearly 64 at the 2017 Inauguration.
If the GOP nominee loses and Bush is on the ticket, he loses
stature. If the nominee wins, Bush won’t
be able to run until he’s 71, and while Joe Biden is thinking about it, I don’t
find it credible. Bush needs to run and
win now. Otherwise, he can either go
back to earning a fortune, or take a Cabinet post in a Republican
Administration.
Scott Walker will not be the Vice Presidential nominee—if
the GOP is smart, and I think they are. He may be the single most polarizing
candidate not named Cruz the Republicans have.
He could win the Presidential nomination, and he could win the general
if all the pieces fell into place, but he adds absolutely nothing positive to a
GOP ticket. He’s a pure party
operative—a man who takes scalps and hands out favors. A couple of weeks ago he tried to sneak
language into the budget that would gut Wisconsin’s Open Records Law and keep
his personal dealings private until after the election. His entire campaign rests on his destruction
of public service unions and cuts to higher education. He defines every battle in terms of taking on
the unions—and equates his ALEC-funded battles with them as the equivalent of
succeeding against ISIS. He clearly has many supporters, he excites the base
that wants to kick Democrats as hard as possible, but few people engender more
pure hostility than Scott Walker. He
shouldn’t be ruled out—even his fiercest enemies admit he is cunning, but I
think he’s too much of a chance to take for any GOP ticket that doesn’t decide
to go scorched Earth negative. He is
just not the guy you add.
Rubio. Ah,
Marco. Telegenic, well spoken, from a
critical swing-state, and also a base-broadening diversity pick. He has run a very quiet campaign so far,
curiously so. His recent polling numbers
have been trending down. He is going to
make the debates, but his arc is a little disturbing. He has four vulnerabilities that might keep
him from the Presidential nomination. He was Jeb’s protégée, which makes it
hard to take him on directly—and they can’t be on the same ticket. He’s young, with a thin record of accomplishment
(I know, that didn’t hurt Mr. Obama). He
either bungled or sabotaged or, as a matter of principle, scuttled bipartisan
agreement on immigration (whatever the adjective, it hasn’t raised his
stature.) And, he has some questionable
finances, including a major contributor hiring his wife. I don’t think any of these things are
killers. He might still get the
Presidential nomination—his path is far simpler than many of his opponents—and
he would be a formidable opponent, and contrast, to Hillary. But I have a hunch there is something else
out there. I think Rubio is trapped by
his own image. It’s hard to know what’s
authentic in any politician, but Rubio has built a brand that is attractive,
and tampering it is a risk. Rubio shot
back at Trump, but his response sounded peevish compared to Perry’s. And he just called Mr. Obama “classless”
which is a gratuitous insult I think he will come to regret. Still, he has significant assets, and I think
he is the only top tier Presidential candidate who is also in the top tier of
Veep candidates.
Now, to my dark horse.
Ohio Governor John Kasich. Kasich
actually has the best resume of any of the candidates. He spent 18 years in the House, and was chair
of the Budget Committee the last time we actually had a balanced budget, and
spent time on the Armed Services Committee.
After working in the private sector for ten years, he was elected
Governor. He also tried an attack on
unions when he came in, but when Ohio voters rejected it, he backed off and prioritized
other things. He speaks of his faith
with conviction, but uses it to buttress a more compassionate approach to the
poor and on immigration. He balanced the
Ohio budget without raising taxes and without crippling cuts to popular
domestic programs. He was reelected in
a genuine landslide in 2014, in a state that went for Obama twice, and, unlike
Walker, Jindal, and Christie, retains high home-state approval ratings. Kasich has some issues. He is decidedly not telegenic, not scripted,
and not groomed, and he has some shortage in the charisma department. He’s not going to rev up crowds. He may not be sufficiently conservative for
the primary activists, but if I were Fox News and I had the stake they do in
getting a Republican elected President, I would want Kasich on the podium. All the cards would have to fall perfectly
for a Kasich Presidential nomination (and they won’t) but he would be a
formidable Veep candidate.
That’s the Sweet Sixteen.
Actually, it’s the Formidable Fifteen.
In deference to your patience I left out others with their eyes on the
prize: Rick Snyder, Peter King, Jim Gilmore, and John Bolton.
I also, as a matter of kindness, omitted Bob Ehrlich.
Martin O’Malley beat Ehrlich. Twice.
It seemed like the right thing to do.
July 28th, 2015
Michael
Liss (Moderate Moderator)
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